The subtle siege: How China could blockade Taiwan
Guest post by Paul Dabrowa You wake up in July 2025 to headlines blaring across every news outlet: “China invades Taiwan with coast guard fleet.” The images are striking—Chinese coast guard ships, flanked by a formidable array of maritime militia vessels, are seen enforcing a de facto blockade around Taiwan. The airwaves are filled with […]
In the Blind Spot (They know we know they lie)
SNEAK PEEK — Izzy argues that economic reform of the Western economy won’t work without Glasnost. — Markets need to start thinking about how a power vacuum in both France and the United States could open the door to martial law. — Dario explains what’s been happening in Kenya this week, and how it […]
In the Blind Spot (The West’s Perestroika moment)
SNEAK PEEK — Izzy catches up with investment advisor Russell Napier, who tells her credit rationing and central bank politicisation are on their way. — A growing chorus of voices are acknowledging that we all become Liz Truss eventually, including Jeremy Hunt. — Dario explores how the confiscation of Russian assets may have major […]
Meet Germany’s Lord of the Drones (POLITICO)
By Gian Volpicelli · Jun 20, 2024 Florian Seibel has seen the future of war — and it has robots in it. He now wants to convince Ukraine — and Europe — that they need to embrace autonomous weapons. A former helicopter pilot in the German army, 44-year-old Seibel is the chief executive of Quantum […]
In the Blind Spot (A Truss-style stitch-up for France?)
SNEAK PEEK — Why this week’s petrodollar 50th anniversary “fake news” saga demonstrates a major misunderstanding about what really empowers the dollar. — China is issuing ultra-long bonds at 2.53 percent, but is it a sign of strength or weakness? — We check in on Russell Napier’s prophetic warnings about why France, not […]
In the Blind Spot (A tale of two Chinas)
SNEAK PEEK — A tale of two Chinas. Izzy explores our growing inability to make sense of what’s really happening in China. — SocGen’s Albert Edwards thinks the recession everyone was expecting but never came, might finally have arrived. — Dario updates us on the latest with the Red Sea and Horn of Africa. Happy […]
Russian central bank gears up for more rate hikes as war economy overheats (POLITICO)
By Geoffrey Smith · Jun 7, 2024, 4:36 Vladimir Putin has been touting his economy’s resilience at his annual showpiece conference in St. Petersburg this week, but his own officials are telling a very different story. The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) issued its sternest warning yet on Friday that it may have to resort […]
In the Blind Spot (Carthago delenda est)
SNEAK PEEK — Dario delves into what constitutes the “state of exception” in the democratic world. — Who is Holland’s new prime minister Dick Schoof really? — Tunisia’s fledgling democracy is experiencing a few setbacks. Happy Sunday afternoon, and to those of you fielding half-term, well done. It’s over now. You’ve now got about […]
A (not so) brief ‘criminal’ history of the ECB (POLITICO)
By Johanna Treeck, Carlo Boffa · May 28, 2024 FRANKFURT – Malta’s central bank chief Edward Scicluna was formally charged with fraud and misappropriation in court this week, joining an illustrious group of European Central Bank policymakers who have faced criminal charges, convictions or even jail time. Most such brushes with the law relate […]
In the Blind Spot (Defending the singleness of money)
SNEAK PEEK — The BoE is edging towards a new liquidity management regime to preserve money singleness — it could have big consequences for repo markets. — Why are Argentina and Spain consumed by an unexpected diplomatic rift? Is it all about Sanchez’s wife, or is it about maintaining internal popularity? — Dario tries to […]