KYIV — More than 21 months after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine the mood is turning grim in Kyiv — with tensions between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his top general, Valery Zaluzhny, spilling into the open.
Last year’s successes, as Ukraine first blunted Russia’s attacks on its capital and then recaptured swaths of territory, have faded into a stalemate along hundreds of kilometers of frontlines as entrenched Ukrainian and Russian soldiers fight bloody battles for advances and retreats measured in meters.
That’s led to political infighting in Kyiv as officials search for ways to outlast Russia during a long war in which Moscow has more men, more weapons and a bigger economy. The mood in Kyiv is further soured by recent wobbles in foreign support for continued military aid.
Ukrainian politicians are desperate for a plan for what to do next.
They say the military’s main idea seems to be to draft many more Ukrainians and to press Kyiv’s allies for more artillery ammunition. Civilian officials, meanwhile, want the military to provide a proper plan for the war, hinting the brass has none.
“All we hear so far from [the military] is: ‘Give us more people and millions of artillery shells.’ That’s unrealistic,” said a person familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity.
But military officials told POLITICO that a plan does exist.
“You think that [U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd] Austin and [Commander of the U.S. European Command Christopher] Cavoli would come to meet Zaluzhny if he had no plan?” one asked.
Russia, sensing the cracks in Ukraine’s leadership, has been spreading rumors of a political rivalry between Zaluzhny and Zelenskyy, while also stressing that Ukraine’s allies are growing tired of the fight.
“It is clear that expending funds in the Ukrainian money pit is becoming increasingly difficult for them,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday. “As far as we are concerned, the special military operation will continue, our economy has adjusted to the conditions of the special military operation and ensures the required level for continuation.”
The infighting in Kyiv is causing public dismay.
“I understand why Russia wants to split the military-political leadership into ‘military’ and ‘political’ and make them fight each other,” said Alina Mykhailova, a Ukrainian army officer and a member of the Kyiv city council, in a Facebook post. “This is the only way for the enemy to decisively defeat Ukraine. But I do not understand and refuse to understand why we give them what they want.”
Tensions at the top
Publicly, Ukrainian officials insist there is no conflict between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhny, with Ukrainian Parliament Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk even claiming it’s all Russian propaganda.
But the best propaganda, it is said, tends to have a grain of truth.
Last month the tensions at the top of Ukraine’s leadership boiled over.
An essay by Zaluzhny for the Economist offered some cold realism in contrast to the optimism that permeates official Kyiv messaging. He made it clear that Russia was far from beaten, and warned: “A positional war is a prolonged one that carries enormous risks to Ukraine’s armed forces and to its state.”
People close to Zelenskyy say the column left him scrambling to reassure partners that the war is not a dead end, and that it’s still worth helping Ukraine. Now the president wants his army to come up with a strategy to keep the aid flowing.
“I would like people to understand the entire plan of action, where we are going, what the challenges are,” Zelenskyy told reporters in Kyiv.
Kyiv continues to push its allies for more ammunition, even if the EU falls short of its pledge to send a million shells by March.
Zelenskyy is considering signing a bill that has been on his desk since June, and that would lower the military conscription age from 27 to 25. The change would allow more people to be mobilized and would permit the rotation of soldiers, some of whom have been serving for two years without a break.
“Everything necessary for our state, our brigades, these specific results must be calculated precisely. This includes issues of mobilization,” the president said over the weekend.
Observers, however, think the military may have a point.
“More artillery and people already sound like a plan. This war is so dynamic that plans for the months ahead sound unrealistic,” said Anton Pavlushko, an analyst with the InformNapalm OSINT project investigating the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
A taste of electoral politics
But any daylight between the president and his top commander invites a political attack.
While Zaluzhny has not publicly expressed any political ambition, his high level of popular support makes him the only real competitor to Zelenskyy if he ever decides to run for the presidency.
Ukraine was supposed to hold a presidential election in March, but that’s been put off as the country’s constitution forbids elections while under martial law.
Zelenskyy is warning his generals to focus on the war.
“Various political forces are pushing the military into politics,” he told the Sun.
He also urged rival politicians to steer clear of the issue. “It is irresponsible to spread ideas about elections during war,” a visibly angry Zelenskyy said.
So far, his appeals aren’t working.
European Solidarity, an opposition party led by former President Petro Poroshenko, has been using Zelenskyy’s perceived beef with Zaluzhny to undermine political support for the country’s leader.
European Solidarity lawmaker Volodymyr Ariev claimed last month that Defense Minister Rustem Umerov intended to fire Zaluzhny, but then quickly backtracked, saying: “I hope that there will be a clear message that no one is going to fire Zaluzhny and that all these games will end.”
Mariana Bezuhla, deputy head of the defense committee in the Ukrainian parliament, has been openly calling for Zaluzhny’s dismissal, complaining he hasn’t provided a detailed vision of the war for next year.
David Arakhamia, a senior member of Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party, also publicly criticized the Ukrainian military. “We ask the military to give us some kind of vision.”
A plan for how to turn the war around would also buttress foreign support for Ukraine, which is showing signs of fraying.
The U.S. Republican Party is balking at President Joe Biden’s call for a $61.4 billion emergency funding request for Ukraine.
“I want to be clear: Without congressional action, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from U.S. military stocks,” White House budget chief Shalanda Young wrote to Congress on Monday, adding: “If Ukraine’s economy collapses, they will not be able to keep fighting, full stop.”
It’s not the only wobble.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is blocking EU financial aid for Ukraine, and has been joined by new Slovak PM Robert Fico, who has ended his country’s weapons shipments to Ukraine. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders and his populist nationalist Freedom Party (PVV) took first place in last month’s election; they, too, want to end military aid to Ukraine.
Selling a plan
Zelenskyy and the military brass are nevertheless trying to send a positive message.
They point out that while the summer counteroffensive was disappointing, Ukraine did manage to push Russia’s Black Sea fleet out of the western part of the sea and reopen grain shipments from Ukraine’s ports. The military has also scored dramatic successes in hitting targets inside Russia, including last week’s daring attacks on a key railway connection to China.
Key foreign allies have insisted they won’t abandon Ukraine despite the tough times.
“We will continue with this support as long as it is necessary,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in a speech to parliament. “This support is of existential importance.”
“Ukraine matters profoundly to America and to the entire world,” U.S. Defense Secretary Austin said last week.
But the danger of a turn for the worse remains.
“Wars develop in phases,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in weekend interview.
“We have to support Ukraine in both good and bad times,” he added. “We should also be prepared for bad news.”
The dire situation requires that Ukrainian politicians form a unified front to keep fighting, Mykhailova warned in her social media post.
“You won’t gain anything, and millions of Ukrainians will forever lose their homes, freedom, and lives. At best, you will go abroad and write memoirs, and you will go down in history as traitors and good-for-nothings who wasted a unique historical chance to destroy the Russian empire,” she said.
“The foundation of our victory is not long-range missiles and unknown technologies. [It] is the unity of the government, the people and the military.”
