In the Blind Spot: Middle East peace (or war?)

DARIO’S COMMENT: When Trump suggests a neighboring country such as Greenland join the U.S., the world recoils in horror at the prospect of annexation. But when the EU expands its membership, punditland hails it as progress.

We think these double standards could collapse soon.

Donald Trump’s gutting of USAID and the Western bloc’s fragmentation marks a shift: America is pulling back into its core territories and granting greater autonomy to its periphery, much like Britain and France did in the mid-20th century.

This is a gift to Europe.

For the first time in decades, it has an opportunity to reassert itself as an independent power, unburdened by American control. But doing so requires a course correction back towards democracy and freedom. Otherwise, the region risks collapsing back into quarrelling nation-states.

For years, the EU leveraged American influence to enforce its will, often via regulatory pressure or covert NGO activity — most of which were little more than subversive tools for covert American intel operations abroad. Think of the canceling of Georgian officials’ visa-free travel in response to NGO-backed protests in Tbilisi, for instance.

What’s more, U.S. power projection will no longer be upheld by moral and legal posturing. Its power projection will now be served raw.

Think back to the most egregious examples of unilateral American actions: they were backed by evidence that linked Saddam Hussein’s government to the construction of chemical weapons, however flimsy, or to the funding of Al-Qaeda.

But now, when a reporter asked Trump under what authority the United States would take control of Gaza, Trump smiled and replied “…under U.S. authority”. In other words — we will do it because we can.

The loss of the EU’s dependable covert ally for regime influence means it must adjust, or risk being left behind.

But Trump’s imperial adjustment contains even more gifts for Europe. The shift unmasks the reality that the United States was never a European ally to begin with.

A hypothetical time-travelling Roman senator would look at a European map filled with American military bases and correctly assume that rather than being protected by American troops, it was occupied by them.

What’s more, said occupation was not always a friendly one.

Think of the covert economic war against Germany through the American-led so-called ‘Russia sanctions’ regime and the fact it probably backed the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline.

Or the weaponisation of corruption investigations to force European companies into American ownership. The clearest example was when French energy giant Alstom’s chief executive was accused and arrested in 2013 under accusations of bribery by the United States, a situation only resolved after Alstom’s takeover by General Electric. This weaponisation of the American legal system against a French national champion caused an uproar in France.

The most egregious example is the extreme cases of outright terrorism that sections of the United States intelligence apparatus supported through the “Gladio” strategy of tension during the Cold War.

So European elites should not be surprised at Trump’s divide-and-conquer strategies against Europe. They are the norm, not the exception.

Two things are different this time. The first is that Europe’s adversary is being more honest. The second is that the United States is giving up its European obligations.

We should be thankful, for it presents a rare chance for Europe to reclaim sovereignty.

But the EU, paralyzed by bureaucracy and increasingly authoritarian tendencies, seems ill-equipped for this change.

Its only effective and independent chamber, the Commission, is laughably illegitimate to most Europeans. Worse, regulatory zeal stifles the very freedoms the organization was meant to uphold.

So, what now? History offers us a clue.

The Holy Roman Empire, long an ineffective legal entity, to which academics like Jan Zielonka have long compared the EU, was finally disbanded in 1806.

And out of the seeds of Germanic nationhood came Prussia’s declaration of the German Empire in 1871, after which it convincingly vied for global power for more than half a century.

Trump’s repositioning of America has clarified that Europe now faces a similar choice. Consolidate power along our base values and emerge as a true superpower, or reduce yourselves back to quarrelsome nation-states.

If nothing else, if the European Union cannot change course, its citizens deserve to live without it.

DARIO’S COMMENT: The risk of another regional war is obvious. Less obvious is the glaring blind spot in Trump’s Gaza plan staring us in the face.

Bluntly, the Orange One isn’t interested in forging Middle Eastern peace. Or in placating Israel. Trump’s true motivation, as ever, is good old money, money, money, moneeeeey.

More cash and fewer costs for the United States = more prestige for Trump. It’s that simple.

His “America First” doctrine towards allies is similarly simple: no more free rides.

Regarding Trump’s Gaza plan, this policy gets interesting when you realise no country has benefitted more from U.S. largesse than Israel.

Bear with us. We’re about to inject you with some high-octane speculation about the Middle East’s potential road to peace.

Think about it. Since its founding, Israel has been the largest recipient of American aid – to the tune of some $310 billion according to the Council on Foreign Relations. Between October 7 2023 and October 7 2024 alone, the United States sent a whopping $18 billion to Israel.

Some argue this money cycles back into American pockets via Israeli defense purchases. But that logic collapses when you see Trump is pulling America back from its European defense obligations even if that defense spending winds its way back into the U.S. too.

And beyond finance, America’s support for Israel also complicates America’s relationships with key Middle Eastern allies like Saudi Arabia or Egypt.

Any version of Trump’s plan — whether the mass displacement he originally proposed, Egypt’s counter-offer, or another variation — would likely dismantle Hamas’ grip on Gaza, reducing Israel’s security burden and, by extension, America’s military commitments.

But wilder theories abound.

One suggests the Middle East has, over the past year or two, fallen under the quiet economic control of the Gulf Cooperation Council in a secret buy-out deal, facilitating Iran’s normalization with Saudi Arabia and the quiet dismantling of Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’, with Assad’s curiously swift capitulation in Syria as Exhibit A.

The argument? The Gulf powers are taking advantage of Trump’s America First disengagement with Israel to suffocate Israel’s war-dependent economy by forcing peace, and preparing to buy up the remains.

The rationale is that the Saudi and Gulf powers want to put an end to the military enmity which benefits Israel by giving it the pretext to engage in extra-legal acts of war outside its borders —  as we saw in our spotlight.

Instead, they aim to suffocate Israel’s war-dependent industry by smothering it with peace, cutting the tether of American support with Trump’s backing, then buying out the remains.

Sounds crazy? Maybe. Time will tell whether this is just ‘hopium’ or outright ‘copium.’

And then there’s the even more outlandish theory that hardcore Orthodox Israelis will be offered resettlement in Ukraine as part of a post-war settlement called “New Jerusalem”.

No serious thinker has touched this idea with a 10-foot barge pole, but it hasn’t stopped local speculation. Or so we hear. Take that as you will.

Back to verifiable reality: Trump’s Gaza plan might grant peace to both Israelis and Palestinians, but it still comes with risks.

Around 70 percent of the Palestinians in Gaza are refugees themselves after their forced expulsion during the Nakba (‘disaster’ in Arabic) by victorious Israeli forces in 1948.

If Palestinians leave Gaza, it must be voluntary. Otherwise, the whole plan risks becoming another war-igniting Nakba.

Moreover, plenty of vested interests — from Hamas to Netanyahu’s increasingly fragile coalition to global defense contractors — thrive on Gaza’s perpetual conflict. These perverse incentives to re-kindle this conflict continue to permeate the region.

The coming days and months will reveal whose agenda prevails.

COMMENT: Izzy’s still on burnout leave but saw fit to tell me she thinks Jamie Dimon is not wrong. From the signal note she shared:

“Post-Covid wfh norms are an obvious contributory factor to burnout and mental health problems. The new work paradigm entirely blurs the boundaries between home life and working life. That’s all fine and dandy if you’re self-employed or a freelancer and you work to your own schedule.

But if you’re not, it leads to a sense of imprisonment in your own home. What’s more, it’s not healthy. Meetings are, just as Dimon says, less effective. There’s a need to do far more of them than you otherwise would.

It’s also terrible for the next generation who have no sense of office life or capacity to shadow more experienced peers by emulating their office protocol.

Make offices loud and noisy again!”

DARIO’S COMMENT: This reliance on physical documents feels like pure neo-medievalism in action.

We use the term to describe growing society-wide distrust caused by an increasing sprawl of layers of authority and data.

It’s not just about cybersecurity threats; it’s about guarding against manipulation by bad actors. The solution? A system where records, physical or digital, are transparent, verifiable, and tamper-proof. Paper trails are one answer. Blockchain trails may be another. And if you look closely, you’ll see this neo-medieval shift happening everywhere.

Iron Mountain persists, despite its inefficiencies, because paper records are practically immune to digital hacks. The Washington Post reported that over $100 million has been spent trying — and failing — to modernize the government’s reliance on this archaic system. Every administration over the last 30 years, despite the cost, has opted to keep it.

And it’s not just governments clinging to paper. Over 95 percent of Fortune 1000 companies back up their data with Iron Mountain too.

Interestingly, Iron Mountain also had a data storage relationship with Autonomy, the information governance and data management company founded by the recently deceased Mike Lynch. In other words, Autonomy, which sold “secure” digital services to companies, didn’t fully trust its own data storage services. Which tells you everything.

Trust issues have also pushed other firms — such as government contractor Palantir — toward a different neo-medieval solution: blockchain.

Palantir, by its own admission, is committed to fastidiously recording every action done in its software – which is now pervasive across the U.S. government and particularly its military – on its own internal blockchain.

Neo-medievalism thus recounts a tale of governmental chaos, with overlapping hierarchies and bureaucratic sprawl facilitating bad actors corrupting the system. For instance, a corrupt intelligence player could use and abuse digital certificates to gain untraceable black money from public funds.

Ironically, blockchain’s inefficiencies — its slow, clunky nature — make it useful. Like paper, it’s harder to alter without leaving a trace.

I experienced this neo-medieval trend in person after I was having trouble registering for a Spanish bank account online. Finally, I arrived at the ING Bank in Malaga where an office worker confided to me that the prevalence of AI-assisted fake paperwork had spooked the ING board enough to approve forcing customers to verify signatures and their identity in person.

Cumbersome? Yeah. Slow? definitely. But it’s honest and, thus, valuable.

DARIO’S COMMENT: Change may be coming to Serbia. But it may not be the change Western elites desire.

After all, when Izzy visited Belgrade in May of last year, she did spot first-hand how many of the pro-Western Serbian elites recoiled at being termed a “Russia-friendly country”. They also highlighted that Serbia had quickly condemned Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.

But the sanctions are an entirely different story. Serbia famously refused to join the broader Western response against Russia. And it may all come down to practicality — not being in the European Union, Serbia cannot afford the luxury of alienating themselves from the Russian markets they may need.

To Izzy’s mind that meant the country’s streak of fearsome independence is more than skin-deep —and may outlast Vucic’s government, should it fall before the protests.

Whether this explains the European Union’s remarkable silence on the Serbian protests, or whether this silence is more related to Vucic’s August 2024 deal to supply lithium to the EU, we don’t know.

Either way, we’ll be keeping an eye on it. Especially if it turns into another color revolution in the making.

DARIO’S COMMENT: The most obvious contenders for investment? Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and SAIC – three government contractors long rumoured to be involved in “crash retrieval programs.”

But as I’ve long argued in all my exopolitical coverage, be skeptical of the alien (or extraterrestrial) label.

Think about it.

If such craft exist, and if they were built by exotic creatures somehow unknown to us, and if they ended up in our hands, it’s still more likely these creatures are terrestrial than extraterrestrial.   

If nothing else, because we reside on a planet teeming with life surrounded by dead space.

And if I were an intelligence officer in the know, I’d do everything in my power to mislead people. Notice how practically every government whistleblower and leaked document points toward space—never the oceans, even though we know far less about the latter.

Take the Wilson/Davis memo. This document describes a meeting between defense insider Eric Davis and Admiral Wilson, then J-2 of the Joint Chiefs.

According to the memo, Wilson—despite his top clearance—was denied any access to a Special Access Program run by private contractors. Yet somehow, they could tell him the technology was “not of this Earth.”

Do you see the irony here? It’s certainly not lost on me.