In this edition of Leaked Lunch I sit down for some room service with economist and author Pippa Malmgren at the Park Hyatt in Zurich, Switzerland. We discuss Pippa’s time serving as a special economic advisor to George W. Bush at the White House, how she feels about crypto and whether WW3 has already started.
We also touch on the outlook for inflation, the impact of tactical space junk and wonder if Gosplan’s making a comeback or not.
5:00 Start talking markets, and Pippa’s specialisation therein – the nexus of markets, geopolitics and tech. Pippa’s background and career relies on communicating between the trading floor and the policy room. On how she started working for George Bush’s White House, and her involvement in the anti-money laundering provisions of the Patriot Act.
11:00 On the strange and sleepless dynamics of negotiating for policy in the White House.
14:00 On Pippa’s current career, her advisory roles to industry leaders on geopolitical and economic risk.
17:30 How Pippa advised NATO generals six weeks prior to the Russian invasion that it was no bluff. The crux of her argument was that the West and Russia have been in a hidden ‘hot’ war in space for several years already.
21:00 Why did we lose the knowledge regarding the strategic importance of economic factors?
23:00 Pippa on cryptocurrencies, smart contracts, the rise of CBDCs and increasing governmental control over cryptocurrency ownership. On the practicalities of tokenisation, and how this would help invest in smaller amounts; crucial for both small-time investors, and small investments by large investors.
33:30 On the difficulties in a society that is obsessed with large-scale businesses, or unicorns – and how this leads to failures of leadership in our society.
40:00 Pippa on the reluctance of senior individuals to acknowledge the rising threat of inflation these past few years. It’s not that they didn’t see it coming, it’s that the inside circle of central bankers believed that a little bit would be good for the economy; and overestimated their capacity to control it.
46:50 Pippa talks about the geopolitical impact of inflation, expecting that Putin and Xi’s attacks on the West were driven by the opportunity to inflict a supply-side shock on top of existing inflationary pressures.
48:00 On the development of hybrid wars, particularly in space – and how in many ways, world war 3 has already begun. How hybrid wars are not suited to strong media coverage and the extent of Russia’s geopolitical strength in West Africa and the Sahel. Cold wars in hot places and hot wars in cold places.
54:30 On the difficulty of getting these hybrid war subjects talked about by the media. On how valuable signals of cold military conflicts are underreported and undervalued by the public and the media.
1:00:00 On the ironic likelihood, and unlikelihood, of engaging in a nuclear exchange; we may get very close to a nuclear conflict, but oftentimes human sentiment and empathy wins out.
1:02:00 On the mythological aspect of Russia’s self-image.
1:05:00 On the space ‘space’, and potential technological innovations that will economically benefit life on earth. On space-based solar energy, laser-based space-to-earth communications and asteroid mining.
1:10:00 What happens to capitalism when our industrial model stops having energy and mineral scarcity.
1:14:30 What was Harald Malmgren’s take on the Soviet Gosplan. On the Soviet difficulties on planning their economy, since Soviet culture was based on deceit.
