The Mariupol steelworks are more important than you realise
The last stand over the steelworks of Mariupol is more significant than most people appreciate. The thing about former Soviet steelworks is that they’re fairly unique in the world due to their scale. The capitalist system has never been able to produce equivalents due to the uneconomic upfront costs. Yet the scale has brought unique […]
Why “safe assets” may not exist anymore
An interesting point comes by way of veteran fixed income market watcher, Marc Ostwald, of ADM Investor Services, in his latest quarterly publication “Ghost in the Machine”. It caught my eye because of how it aligns with my own thesis about the end of dollar neutrality. As Ostwald notes: If everything can be weaponised, as […]
Why the oil price is not what it seems
Just because oil prices are absorbing the prospect of an outright European ban on Russian imports well, doesn’t mean there won’t be a major breakout to $300 per barrel highs if and when such a ban is executed.
The end of dollar neutrality and what it means for funding markets
Why the current crisis represents the end of the neutral dollar era.
Almost an energy mea culpa from Boris
I’ve been pretty up front about the fact that the precarious energy situation we find ourselves in today is mostly of our own making. Even so, it still hasn’t been stressed enough that so much of it is due to the UK’s and Europe’s specific insistence that removing natural gas from the energy mix to […]
Russia’s special “K” account operation echoes communist practices
There’s a very reasonable counter narrative going around to the whole Russia is demanding roubles thing. It argues this is more a reserve management story than it is anything else. And this would be correct. Ultimately it doesn’t matter what currency a country demands for its exports. The buyer just goes to the FX market […]
Why talk of transitory inflation is reality denial
TLDR: The transitory inflation debate is a waste-of-time distraction. Animal spirits will dictate the breadth, scale and duration of inflation, not textbook definitions about what constitutes inflation and what does not. And animal spirits are far more likely to be influenced by the role poorly thought out government policy has played in driving inflation and geopolitical risk in the first place — notably lockdown and net zero policy.
WW3 Watch: The cost of believing your own disinfo
Investors can’t afford to get swept up by the propaganda wars. To stay afloat in such choppy market waters one has to maintain a cool and relatively dispassionate head. And doing so is not unpatriotic.
Why commodity credit mechanics matter
Why the stress in commodity credit lines could be indicative of a major dollar-financing paradigm shift.
Media matters: The weaponisation of ambiguity
We all know the Ukrainians are winning the infowar, and we also know they haven’t always been honest about their claims. But I don’t think everyone is necessarily familiar with the mechanics and techniques they are using. Or the role we, as consumers of news and social media, play in the propaganda strategy. Or, for […]