Why talk of transitory inflation is reality denial
TLDR: The transitory inflation debate is a waste-of-time distraction. Animal spirits will dictate the breadth, scale and duration of inflation, not textbook definitions about what constitutes inflation and what does not. And animal spirits are far more likely to be influenced by the role poorly thought out government policy has played in driving inflation and geopolitical risk in the first place — notably lockdown and net zero policy.
In the Blind Spot on Tuesday (Commodity fallout edition)
Commodity power: The FT (reporting out of its FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne) warns of potential diesel rationing in Europe due to a “systemic” shortage of diesel. [The UK went through a mini drill on the consequences of this sort of stuff last Autumn, but suffice to say, if hauliers can’t get their diesel […]
WW3 Watch: The cost of believing your own disinfo
Investors can’t afford to get swept up by the propaganda wars. To stay afloat in such choppy market waters one has to maintain a cool and relatively dispassionate head. And doing so is not unpatriotic.
Transcript: What’s really going on with Ukrainian biolabs
Earlier this week I hosted a Twitter Spaces session with two world-leading experts in the field of biodefence, Filippa Lentzos from King’s College London and Greg Koblentz, of George Mason University to try and get to the bottom of Russian claims that Ukrainian biolabs are secretly engaged in offensive biological weapon development. The below is […]
In the Blind Spot on Wednesday (ETPs, Nigeria, Cables)
Finance, business, markets etc … There’s been a powerful earthquake in Fukushima. Barclays has suspended two ETNs, the iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil ETN and the iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-term futures ETN (VXX). [It’s always around this point in the Exchange Traded Product fallout narrative that the mainstream press gets openly confused […]
WW3 Watch: An unexpected intervention from the Vatican
In big news for Catholics around the world, Vatican News reported on Wednesday that the Pope would consecrate Russia and Ukraine to the Immaculate Heart of Mary. Some subscribers might be confused as to why this should be of relevance to financial investors? But, as I already noted in my Moscow, the Third Rome piece, […]
Media matters: The weaponisation of ambiguity
We all know the Ukrainians are winning the infowar, and we also know they haven’t always been honest about their claims. But I don’t think everyone is necessarily familiar with the mechanics and techniques they are using. Or the role we, as consumers of news and social media, play in the propaganda strategy. Or, for […]
WW3 Watch: Monetary policy during wartime
I’ve been trying to figure out what happens to a modern financial system in a global wartime framework, especially a financial system as interconnected and extended as the Western one. How would the system cope with national-scale food, energy and good shortages during a period of martial law? How would the transfer capital away from […]
In the Blind Spot today (Polish sanctions, Biolabs, Covid)
Finance, economics, markets… Goldman’s GQG fund has cut Russian exposure to $222m. This follows the IPO of GQG Partners on the ASX in October 2021, where it was valued at $5.9bn (AUD) and priced at $2 per share. It’s now trading at $1.2 per share. More background here. Everybody missed that on February 18, a […]
Spotlight on biological warfare
From Gain of Function research to biological warfare threats in Ukraine In the summer of 2020, when the zoonotic origin story for Covid was the established consensus on how the global pandemic had been triggered, I was approached by a source who had sensed I might be receptive to a story nobody else was telling. […]