Indian heatwave compounds Ukrainian grain shortage

Apologies for light content this week. I have been doing a lot of ‘old school’ news gathering (i.e. face-to-face). In that capacity I recently met with Elena Neroba, a Ukrainian agricultural commodity analyst, usually based in Kyiv, who gave me a fascinating overview of the state of the market. She arrived in London a few […]

WW3 Watch: Monetary policy during wartime

I’ve been trying to figure out what happens to a modern financial system in a global wartime framework, especially a financial system as interconnected and extended as the Western one. How would the system cope with national-scale food, energy and good shortages during a period of martial law? How would the transfer capital away from […]

WW3 Watch: The first casualty of war is the truth

Too much to say, not enough bandwidth. So here’s Russell Brand who pretty much sums it up I think. The comments are worth a gander too. Obviously I’m hugely sympathetic for the Ukrainian people who are just pawns in the whole mess. But I’m equally concerned about what the media messaging is doing to people’s […]

WW3 Watch: The fertiliser angle

A lot of people are asking, if Russia doesn’t have hostile intentions against Ukraine, why the troop build up? This is an absolutely fair question. Not least because the troop build-up has been happening for many months. One under-appreciated factor in the whole story, however, is the role being played by natgas and fertiliser markets. […]