Last week, thousands of Flemish farmers took to the streets of Brussels to protest plans to reduce nitrogen emissions from agriculture, which they say will put many out of business.
A crisis in the Flemish regional government swiftly followed, bringing it to the brink of collapse.
How did we get there? POLITICO takes a look:
What’s the plan?
Nitrogen emissions, which are a major contributor to global warming, notably come from chemical fertilizers and livestock effluents.
Flanders, the Dutch-speaking northern part of Belgium, is considered a hotspot for nitrogen pollution in Europe, and was taken to court by the European Commission last February for its failure to deal with the problem. The farming sector accounts for more than half of the region’s emissions.
After six years of negotiations, the Flemish regional government agreed on a new strategy in February 2022, aiming to cut nitrogen emissions in the agricultural sector — mostly by taking drastic measures to reduce intensive cattle farming.
The plan also aims to decrease pig numbers by 30 percent by 2030 in the region. And, most importantly, it would shut down the worst nitrogen emitters — a “red list” of 40 farms — by 2025 in exchange for compensation. Another 120 farms, classified as “dark orange,” would be given an extra year to voluntarily close shop.
The strategy was originally accepted by all parties of the ruling coalition in Flanders — the rightwing N-VA, the liberal Open VLD and the Christian Democrats (CD&V) — but was quickly met with strong resistance from farming unions.
What’s the holdup?
The Flemish government’s proposal was submitted for a public consultation, during which more than 15,000 reclamations, or objections, were filed.
Farmers complain that the emissions-reduction project unfairly puts a higher burden on the agricultural sector than on industry, and risks putting many of them out of business.
Their resistance culminated in a major protest last Friday, when thousands of Flemish farmers voiced their anger by blocking the streets of the capital for hours.
Some of last week’s scenes in downtown Brussels, where 2,700 tractors formed queues for miles along the city streets, were reminiscent of the large-scale protests that took place last year in the Netherlands, when the Dutch government agreed to cut nitrogen emissions by 70 percent in some regions.
What’s the fallout?
The unions’ opposition put pressure on the CD&V, a key member of the ruling coalition in Flanders. Once Belgium’s largest political force, the Christian Democrats have seen their vote share shrink in recent decades, with farmers becoming their main constituency.
The centrist party thus sought to amend the plan to answer some of the farmers’ concerns, while its two coalition partners, Open VLD and N-VA, stuck to the original deal. The CD&V eventually left the negotiations last weekend, creating a split within the coalition, and raising fears that the alliance would collapse.
While it is unlikely that the government will fall — the electoral system in Flanders does not allow early elections to be called, and a Cabinet can only resign if there is already an agreement to form a new government — the CD&V could leave the coalition. This would create a minority government, with a limited capacity to pursue a coherent legislative agenda until the Belgian general election next year.
At the time of writing, a last-minute proposal was being discussed in the Flemish parliament to rescue the government’s nitrogen plan. It is supported by the other two parties in the ruling coalition, Open VLD and N-VA, but not by the CD&V.
